Penn League Report

Mid-season Top 30 NYPL Prospects: 20-16

On to numbers 20-16...

20. Austin Wright: P – Williamsport Crosscutters (Phillies)

Wright doesn’t have as much upside as others on this list, but the 2011 draft pick has already made an impact in the Phillies system. A lefty, Wright features a three-pitch mix with deception and some good life to his fastball. He’s not going to blow anybody away but challenging hitters is his strongest suit. He could likely be a solid 4^th or 5^th starter, so look for him to climb the system’s ropes and develop in to viable candidate as such.

19. Jose Urena: P – Jamestown Jammers (Marlins)

Urena is your typical loose, wirey Dominican arm with excellent stuff. Although he has a fastball that regularly touches 95-96 MPH, Urena lacks good command and at times overthrows. He uses the whole zone, however, and compliments his fastball with a 3-7 slider and a change-up which is in the works. Jose Urena features plenty of projection and he’s a good athlete so if the consistency in his delivery and arm slot aren’t currently there, he has time fix it up.

18. Matt Skole: IF – Auburn Doubledays (Nationals)

The brother of former Rangers first rounder Jake, Matt Skole entered his first taste of pro-ball with a bang, instantly helping the Doubledays hop in to first place. The bat is there for Skole. He has good strike-zone judgment and solid plate discipline but he’s a really bad athlete and I’m not sure, in fact, I can almost guarantee that he won’t stick at third base.

17. David Medina: 1B – Batavia Muckdogs (Cardinals)

Medina swings an excellent bat, and one that projects to get even better. He has average to plus power and can hit for average as well. The problem with Medina is he’s very streaky. He’ll go on a crazy hitting streak for a week and then do absolutely nothing the next. Medina has a slender, skinny frame and one that’s expected to fill out a bit. There really isn’t any weak part of Medina’s game but no tool that stands out either. Alas he profiles as an everyday player with good pop.

16. Josh Hodges: P – Jamestown Jammers (Marlins)

Easily one of the more projectable pitchers in the New York Penn League, Hodges has made major strides this year. Working on his off-speed command and delivery consistency are just microcosms of the progress he’s made since just last year. He posses’ good size and throws the ball downhill, although his command is still a bit spotty. His fastball is getting better and has real nice cut, something that will definitely help him down the line.

Interview with Red Sox Prospect Garin Cecchini

Only a few weeks ago, the Auburn Doubledays and Lowell Spinners squared off in Lowell in a series that consisted of two of the better teams in the league. Since then, the Spinners have only one five games while continuing to lose their better players to injury. Why are they playing lousy baseball? Perhaps it's due to the loss of their best player and prospect, Garin Cecchini. Early in the aforementioned D'Days/Spinners affair, Garin was drilled on the left forearm with a fastball that seemingly ruined his season as well as the next eight weeks. Cecchini suffered a broken wrist.

Prior to the unfortunate plate appearance, Cecchini was arguably the hottest player in the league. And he didn't stop hitting at all. He's still one of the best prospects in the league, and certainly one of the system's top 10 but needs to stay healthy. Obviously, you can't prevent a hit-by-pitch or at least an injury as such but even in high school days Cecchini has dealt with the injury bug; he tore his ACL in his senior year of high school, which, in the eyes of money, was the only thing that kept him out of the 1st round.

Nevertheless, the third-baseman stopped by for a brief, yet informative interview with yours truly. Make sure you have a listen by clicking the link below.

 

Download Garin Cecchini Interview

 

Mid-season Top 30 NYPL Prospects: 25-21

On to numbers 25-21 of our mid-season top 30 NYPL prospects. Without further ado...

Must have minimum of 95 PA's or 20 IP to qualify.

25. Lino Martinez: P - Williamsport Crosscutters (Phillies)

Martinez isn't going to blow anyone away, but is the exact definition of pitchability and is advanced for a guy his age (18). He throws at a consistent arm slot, at a smooth downhill plain and gets a fair share of whiffs. He has good fastball command, and while he wasn't too wild with his change up or slider, he barely shows them. Martinez, a lefty, beholds lots of physical projection. He might be 160 pounds, but even that might be generous. His fastball sits 87-89, but he progressively threw it harder as the game went on last time I saw him.

24. Ryan Hafner: P - State College Spikes (Pirates)

Like Martinez, Hafner is one hec of a physical specimen. He defines the term "projection", and when you see him you'll what I mean. Unlike Martinez, however, Hafner stands at 6'6. He features a fastball sitting around 87-88 but is expected to gain a bit more velo once he fills out some more. His fastball has late sink and his change has nice fade -- both of which make Penn League batters crazy. He's more of a pitcher than a thrower, but with his upside the two could very well combine to what could make a very promising young arm.

23. Eduardo Aldama: P - Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets)

Aldama has a devastating curveball and a fastball with really good sink, but that's about it. He doesn't generally throw a change-up and his fastball, which is very hittable, sits 88-90. He leaves his pitches up, but is deceptive, thus the amount of whiffs he induces. With a violent, Alexei Ogando-like delivery, many foresee a relief role for Aldama once he works his way up, but that remains to be seen. He the stuff to be a starting pitcher, just needs to harness the wildness.

22. Bryan Mitchell: P - Staten Island Yankees (Yankees)

The Yankees love Mitchell and it's not really a surprise why. He has lots of life to his fastball and has projection on his secondary pitches. While he's no where near complete, Bryan Mitchell shows flashes of why he has as much upside as he does. Some have said he's a reliever long term due to delivery and command issues, but he's young and still developing his change-up for one. Mitchell's fastball was what impressed me the most when I last saw him, and while he was inconsistent with his arm slot, command and delivery the stuff was definitely there.

21. Nick Rickles: C - Vermont Lake Monsters (Athletics)

Nick Rickles is by far one of the most intriguing prospects I've seen so far in the New York Penn League. Rickles features a quick bat with power and the ability to hit to all fields in addition to a real good arm behind the plate. He's not a great athlete and doesn't much upside but projects as a solid everyday catcher. He makes good contact and looks for the pitch he wants. As you may or may not know, plate recognition is rare for this low a level, but Rickles has that nailed down. Expect him to continue to progress as he makes his way through the Athletics system.

Midseason Top 30 NYPL Prospects: 30-26

With the All-Star Game just days away, I thought it would be a good time to rank the top-30 Penn Leaguers. These compilations are obviously based on potential, as I generally focus on scouting over here at Penn League Report. I'll try to skip a day between each of the rankings, too. And remember, there will clearly be a top-30 ranking once the season is over, as well. Here we go...

Must have minimum of 95 PA's or 20 IP to qualify.

30. Tyler Vail: P - Vermont Lake Monsters (Athletics)

Even having been demoted earlier this year, Vail consistently shows the stuff needed to be a quality starting pitcher. He features a fastball with heavy, late sink sitting 91-93 and a deceptive change-up. He has a slider in the works but it isn't close to what could eventually be a plus pitch. He's not going to blow anybody away but does have the ability to be a finesse, ground-balling arm, which every rotation needs. Vail is only 20 years of age so he still has lots of time to work through kinks that are currently giving him trouble, and if he does I expect his future to be bright.

29. Sammy Gonzalez: C - State College Spikes (Pirates)

With most catching prospects in this low a level, the bats aren't as developed as the glove. Hence the reason many catchers don't stick. But in the case of Gonzalez things are just the opposite as I've heard really good things about the bat and the results have showed. Gonzalez can definitely remain behind the plate but needs to work on his receiving. At the plate, he's shown some discipline but has a long way to go. In any case, Gonzalez is a prospect with upside, upside that can get him somewhere even if he takes a while.

28. Evan DeLuca: P - Staten Island Yankees (Yankees)

When the year started, Evan DeLuca was throwing 91-93 touching 94 and 95 quite often. He was getting a lot of swings-and-misses and developed a consistent arm slot. Since then, he's been throwing 87-89 of late rarely missing bats and walking more than he should. He doesn't think it's injury related but it's a bit concerning considering what we saw from the start to the middle of the season. DeLuca might be better suited for a bullpen role in the future since he does possess strikeout stuff but he's been known to experience velocity dips as the games progress. Either way, there's tons of time for the Yankees to decide his fate and as of now, De Luca is extremely fun to watch.

27. Javier Rodriguez: OF - Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets)

The big problem with Rodriguez is that this is his fourth professional season and he's still in the Penn League. However, he's only twenty-one years of age. So basically, there were players in the 2011 Draft even who were older than J-Rod at the time of their selection. Rodriguez still has time, but he hasn't been able to hit Sally League pitching and additionally, he's been well over-matched. But he's shown power and the ability to drive the ball this year for Brooklyn and his speed has also caused a bit of damage. He makes consistent contact and hits to all fields. Those are just a few reasons why I like Javier Rodriguez.

26. Blake Brewer: P - Jamestown Jammers (Marlins)

Blake Brewer has pitched solely in a relief role this season but that doesn't necessarily mean he wont get a chance to start going forward. The big issue for Brewer, a 6'5, 180 pounder is his inability to locate. However, he throws hard and gets lots of swings-and-misses. He has feel for a change-up and slider but doesn't use them much. Some refining could go a long way to getting him more acclimated and inclined to use them, which project to be useful pitches down the line. Brewer needs some refining, but still projects as a solid 4th or 5th starter down the line.

Video: Mets Prospect Matt Harvey

Video of Indians Prospect Tony Wolters

Friend of Penn League Report Michael Washburn reguraly attends Auburn Doubledays games and it just so happened that top Indians prospect Tony Wolters and the Mahoning Valley Scrappers were in town this past weekend. Michael took some nice video of Wolters, despite neither at-bat resulting in his favor. But do have a look at the video and make sure to thank Michael for the video. You can thank him on Twitter.

 

Interview With Phillies Prospect Perci Garner

Phillies 2010 2nd rounder and current Williamsport Crosscutters relief pitcher (and starter, for that matter) Perci Garner joined me for a few minutes to discuss his mechanics, stuff as well as his expactions for the rest of the season. Have a listen.

Perci Garner Interview

 

Thoughts on Blue Jays Calling up Henderson Alvarez

In case you missed the news from yesterday and the day before, the Blue Jays in need of a starter for start later this week chose to select the contract of Henderson Alvarez from New Hampshire. Other candidates included newly acquired P.J. Walters, Chad Gaudin or even Kyle Drabek. The needed spot start would potentially take place this Friday against the Angels, and neither of the aforementioned trio has conflicting starts in Las Vegas.

In any case, the Jays are taking a risk by calling up Henderson Alvarez, a 21-year old with nasty stuff who's been progressing quite a good deal this year. I think it's fair to say that I've seen Alvarez more than most people this year, and although I've seen a shaky Henderson Alvarez I've seen the dominant one shine more than not. The first thing that popped in to my head after I heard the news was "he's probably going to be optioned back to NH following his start regardless of how he performs." Since the Jays do only need a starter for one start, that could very well be the case. Here's where it gets tricky.

If Henderson Alvarez doesn't get his contract selected anytime during the 2011 season, he has to be protected this upcoming off-season on the 40-man. So say the Jays made some sort of move in the off-season or Kyle Drabek has a really good spring training, the Jays potential 2012 rotation would be filled thus having Henderson Alvarez most likely start the season in New Hampshire or Las Vegas. So what that means is if he were to be called up for this Friday's start and get optioned back to the minors shortly thereafter and that would waste one option. And when the Jays call up all of the players on the 40-man for Spring Training and he gets optioned afer, that would be option number two. Is that really worthwhile to waste two options of one of your best pitching prospects within the space of eight months?

Another thought is how he'll likely perform. After seeing him pitch several times throughout the season, I don't question his effectiveness long term, but I do wonder how hitters will fare against his fastball. He typically throws in the mid-to-upper 90's, regularly touching 97 and 98 on the gun while mixing in a devisating change and occasionally a slider. While all are tough pitches to hit, neither are swing-and-miss pitches. He comands them well but doesn't get batters to whiff, which in my opinion is only a problem if he fails to consistently hit the target.

Many have said that they see Alvarez as a relief pitcher long term, which I'm not against. Although I think at least for now he could be a viable starter right now even while still working on a few kinks. He has tremendous poise and has definite want, something not all pitches posses. In addition, he works fast and challenges hitters with basically whatever Travis d'Arnaud or Yan Gomes call. It's not like he works around hitters throwing fastball after fastball -- he uses the whole kitchen sink.

So the Jays are obviously making a risky decision calling him up and then optioning him down, but I guess they feel as though he's not going to need the third option eventually or just he'll break camp with the team after Spring Training in 2012. There's no doubting the fact that Henderson Alvarez can pitch, and he's easily one of the best pitching prospects in the system, thus I think he'll make an immediate impact. Maybe two months ago I wouldn't have said the same thing but I've seen him enough to have confidence in him going forward. Sure, his fastball is extremely straight and his delivery is questionable but everyone has their flaws. It just so happens that Alvarez's qualities easily over-match his problems, and it's not particularly close.

New York Penn League All-Star Game Rosters Announced

So here are the rosters

And the position players

(sorry for the scratchy images! I screenshotted from the source)

Scouting Report on Phillies Prospect Aaron Altherr

Continuing with my newly formatted scouting report series, it's time to move on to our next prospect. That would be Phillies prospect Aaron Altherr (pronounced all-tair) who has been heating up in Williamsport of late. There are definite concerns in Altherr, but he has an incredibly high ceiling and the reports are much better looking than the statistics. Before we move on, I'd like to mention something I forgot about when I wrote about Aaron Shipman. I take lots of pride in my work, thus I want to give you, the reader the most information I possibly can. That's why I will not, by any means write a scouting report on a player I've either never seen in person or heard in detail from someone I trust who has.

Another thing as well in regards to OFP; all professional scouts have an OFP sorter on their computer program in which they organize their reports prior to sending them in to the Scouting Director. Those programs compile the Adjusted OFP, and this is where it gets tricky. The Adjusted OFP largely depends on the position of the player. For example, if a center fielder has 60-70 speed as expected but lacks power, say in the 30's, his OFP will be less weighted and contrary, since he's what you would expect from a player at that position. On the other hand, if a first baseman has 30 power and doesn't project to have much more, his Adjusted OFP would likely be several points lower than his OFP, since he lacks a tool that most at his position have. So there is definitely a lot of weight involved.

So let's get to it then, shall we?

What is the System I Will be Using to Convey my Scouting Reports?

I think it's pretty simple. The writers and scouts I emulate follow an extremely understandable template courtesy of Deric McKamey, who's involved in the St. Louis Cardinals scouting department as we speak. Here's what he said...

"Scouts grade players based on a 20-to-80 (or 2-8) scale, with 80 representing the highest achievable grade. The grade of 50 is considered major league average. Position players are graded in five categories (hitting, power, speed, throwing, and fielding), which are typically referred to as the "five tools." Players will also receive grades for base running, arm accuracy, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness, though they do not account as much for the final grade.

An amateur player or minor league player will receive two grades for each tool: a present grade and a future grade, based on how they are expected to perform in the majors. Future grades are added and then divided by the number of grades to determine their Overall Future Potential (OFP). A scout can then adjust a player's OFP by 10 points based on the lesser categories and their gut instinct."

Overall Grades

Overall/Hitting Grades

Aaron Altherr's Grades

The Good: Aaron Altherr is very athletic and features lots of physical projection. He posses' an advanced eye at the plate and has developed much better pitch recognition of late. Altherr has a real calm approach at the plate and doesn't swing at pitches he doesn't like. When he makes contact, he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His power is also developing although it doesn't project to be the biggest asset in his game. It's raw, but when that power is displayed things get really exciting. The speed factor of Altherr might be the most impressive part of his game. I got him at a 3.7 up the line and when watching him in the outfield he took good routes to balls along with making solid, quick reads as well. As I previously mentioned, he's got some filling out to do. He's very lanky and although strong, Altherr is expected to gain more strength. When and if so, he might be able to boast 15-22 power.

He has really good baseball instincts as his flawless routes in the outfield would suggest. In addition, he's able to recognize different pitches very well, and as I said waits for his pitch which seemed to be the fastball. He didn't get tested much from the outfield but I've heard good things about his arm.

He has great makeup and is a very nice kid. He carries himself quite well for a twenty-year old and while most laugh and disregard those types of intangibles, they really do hold value. Altherr is a good teammate and his manager spoke very highly of him as not only as a player, but a person, when we spoke.

The Bad: Even though he's still very young and warrants the least bit of potential rushing, he's in his third pro-season and currently in Williamsport. He's also been optioned down to the Penn League once, from Lakewood, which he didn't fare too well at. Even in the Penn League, and even with good pitch recognition, he hasn't shown a ton of discipline this year. From what I saw, he's really conserative early in the count and when the count gets higher he's still waiting, which is obviously something he needs to fix.

Aaron Altherr has a boatload of holes in his swing. It's not just long, it's very uppercut. There are times where his uppercut swing causes him to get under balls that most normally wouldn't. That generally causes a pop up rather than a line drive, depending on where the ball is pitched.

Quick Summary: Even in his third year in the Phillies organization, Altherr remains extremely raw and has been slow turning his exciting tools into skills. However, he's shown glimpses of stardom in all areas of his game and while there's no rush, I expect him to show major improvements in the not too distant future.